This work is based on a shared belief that climate change is now the human rights struggle of our age, with the millennial generation’s right to a future, to inherit a planet similar to the one that sustained life as we know it for thousands of years--now being grievously threatened by the forces of greed, ignorance and inaction.
 
Facing this rising challenge, this group of Vermonters is gathering behind a shared conviction that Vermont, with its close-knit communities and long history of leading on social justice causes, must once again play a leading role by pointing the way for global climate change solutions.

This Vermont campaign focuses on three primary outcomes:

1.     Raising a bold and audacious, people powered movement that represents a clear mandate from the people of Vermont -- calling for climate solutions at a scale equivalent to the size of the crisis we must now address.

2.      Popular education about the importance of passing far more aggressive climate action legislation in Vermont—in light of the urgent need to end the massive levels of  greenhouse gas presently being emitted worldwide.  

3.      A community-based cultural shift to climate friendly social and economic practices through a strategic program of practical education, model community projects, and staging a network of local climate action centers and information hubs across the state.

Solid work has already gone into organizing this initiative: statewide listening tours, planing retreats, organizing meetings, a statehouse rally and the recent launch of Climate Action Now, an online climate action center.

In the months ahead the effort will continue with 350-VT, Transitions Town, Interfaith Power and Light, Town Energy Committees, campus climate groups and the Vermont Worker Center and many other grassroots and grasstops in Vermont to advance this campaign, through a series of escalating statewide events and citizen forums that will crystallize bold climate action demands into concrete plans and specific legislation, all bolstered by robust public support. 

Finally, in the spirit of open source organizing, Climate Action Now represents an open invitation for your direct involvement. The spirit of this work is one of openness, inclusiveness, equality and transparency. While the work process may never be perfect, the values and standards of behavior are clear.  Every group, every project, every forum is an open invitation for active participation based on a shared awareness that this movement can only advance through our collective action.

I stand here to humbly represent the burgeoning 350 Vermont movement. and to share a reminder. while it feels like we're standing or sitting in a very ornate beautiful well lit room, in our beloved statehouse, we're also hunkered down on a big rock hurtling through ...the darkness of space. and that rock, that planet, is very different than what it used to be.

All that snow outside right now isn’t irony -- it’s the physics and chemistry of a new world at work. For the last two centuries we’ve been burning epic amounts of oil, coal, and gas: blanketing our sky in carbon. And as we know, that's why our atmosphere's been burning up.

Here’s the thing: warmer air sucks more moisture out of the air than colder air. so while sucking the moisture out spreads drought in more places, in other places all that moisture eventually comes down in more and more super storms.

If you were up in space this week, you would have seen a vast blanket of white covering the US -- and a massive 300-mile swirl of angry whiteness racing towards Australia. Here, it’s a near-country-covering blizzard. Over there, it’s a Category 5 cyclone. Extreme weather has become the new norm.

So, how can Vermont fight climate change? it can't really. we should own that. our carbon emissions are paltry. in 2005, we emitted a mere 6.9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Compare that to New Jersey, one of the few states that are smaller than us, with over 133 metric tons. Or California: with over 395.

6.9...395...We cannot solve the climate crisis by simply cutting carbon.

The only way Vermont can change the world, is by inspiring the rest of the world to do so. the only way we can lead, is to act on such a scale, that other big polluter states and nations look at us as a model that works. our best shot as a tiny state is to make such massive waves of change that they resound and ripple and are replicated across the world.

We can no longer content ourselves with being the Green Mountain State. It's time to be the bright, burning, luminescent Climate Solutions State. the 1st 100% clean energy state. the Solar everywhere state. the Wind, where it makes sense, state. the Energy efficient home for ALL state. the Public Transport for EVERY Vermonter state. the local food state. the Transition state. the renewable jobs state. the Justice which surrounds us state -- and that includes universal healthcare.

This only works if we go all out. this only works: if our actions roar, and in so doing mobilize the rest of this nation to echo our deeds, and to return those roars.

This only works if we act at the scale of the crisis we seek to fix. anything less than inspiring, anything less than bright burning and luminescent, and we’re still hurtling through space on a planet that’s falling apart.

We are given a chance to be a candle in this darkness. But we must make ourselves a sun.

A beautiful social movement is just getting started to make it so.

Join us at: http://www.facebook.com/350Vermont



Does this threaten business as usual? Absolutely! If it’s to be effective at all, it must - especially in the west where little or nothing about our lifestyle over the last century has been remotely close to being sustainable. Yet, at the same time, each and every one of us must also meet the needs we share for sustaining our everyday lives with at least a basic measure of abundance and plentitude. The entire global economy cannot be sustained by government programs or operate like a nonprofit – depending only on the donations of others. We must all produce to survive.

As business people—for-profit or non-profit—we must learn and work together to transform our enterprises so that they operate in full alignment with these earth-centered and human-centered values, and still efficiently meet the needs of all forms of life living on this planet from today forward.

Clearly, this level of complete and total transformation is a tall, tall order. It requires racing forward while simultaneously rethinking, reinventing, retooling and relearning everything about our lives. And doing this at the same time we’re responding to the strident demands of a global operating system which is woefully out of balance and in dire need of massive repairs: increasingly breaking down, wrecking large scale havoc, belching smoke and gas and leaking deadly toxic fluids—more and more acting like it’s preparing to self-destruct. Tall order indeed. Especially in light of the fact that this earth and this planetary operating system has no back up—for better or worse what we have is all we’ve got.

Transformation is change at warp speed and full scale, which pretty well sums up what’s required from all of us today, if we’re to meet the challenges we face as a global community. Embracing this level of change means everything is up for grabs and no one has all the answers. This scale of effort requires collectively crafting a system-wide, globally-scaled learning community capable of learning at the speed of light through bold and continuous trial and error; constantly sharing innovation and information while racing forward.

Change, especially at this level, is both an outer and inner process. Inner skill and personal change and growth are just as vital to this effort as anything we might attempt outwardly. Without the ability to think and see our problems differently, manage our internal reactions better, find balance in action and peace in stressful times, and constantly nurture and support each other in the process; nothing of value or consequence will ever be achieved. Helping our human family to move though this period in a caring compassionate way while learning new internal tools, mindsets, and attitudes is both the indicator of true civilization and the single greatest factor that will determine our ability to succeed – if not survive. 

We must care for each other, leave no person behind, and let no one go hungry or be ignored or suffer unnecessarily. We must learn to communicate and share and actively and tirelessly support one another—even when we fail miserably even on a grand scale. This is the expression of the unique combination of strength and fragility that best expresses humanity’s priceless gifts and exquisite beauty. At no time in the evolution of our species have these qualities been more called forth from so many at one time than they are today. We can succeed, we can survive and even thrive in the face of challenging times, but to do so every one of us must fully participate, giving everything we’ve got. Such are the times we live in.

There’s a bunch of folks in a moving vehicle barreling down the road, heading straight for a cliff that if we go over, will surely be the end for us all. The driver is madly intoxicated, having the time of his life, and could care less about any risks involved. Everybody else in the car is either unaware, sound asleep, or as high as the driver and loving every second of the wild ride. You on the other hand, are wide-awake and can see that unless you take strong action right now, everybody here is toast. Oh, and did I mention that as the car’s speeding down the road it’s smacking into every person and beast it can reach, and that if and when it finally sails over said cliff, the big bang at the bottom will end all life as we know it on planet earth? So that’s the scenario, and the question I keep asking myself is what should I do? What would you do? What would any sane person do in this situation?

Common sense says, do whatever you need to take the wheel away from guy driving, ignoring his protests and the screams of the other revelers, knowing that when everybody sobers up and finally sees the humongous cliff ahead, they’ll be hugely grateful someone was clear headed enough to take the wheel when they did.

What you don’t do, at least as far as I can see, is sit back and watch the show. What you don’t do is hand the driver another drink. What you don’t do is say, I don’t want to get involved here, or I don’t like being aggressive or bossy or loud; I really don’t want to ruffle anyone’s feathers here. I’m too busy now. If it’s really a matter of life and death, and grievous harm is already being done today, there’s really no choice but to act now—not later, not when everybody agrees. Regardless of how much my actions will upset many others riding in the car, I do have a moral responsibility to act.

So, in real life, the car is planet earth. Our driver becomes our political leaders and big corporate execs. The passengers are the world population, and the beasts and people already being harmed are the people and species being impacted today by climate change. The cliff that we’re racing towards is the impending impact of global climate change, barreling down on planet earth at an already frightening but still accelerating speed.

In this true-life situation, what do you and I do? What an ever-increasing number of people are choosing to do is to act. To call out the insanity of our global choices, and to keep calling out ever more loudly if need be, until the human family finally wakes up and sees what modern civilization is doing to planet earth, and what’s at stake with climate change today and for generations to come. Anything less is collusion, if not outright cowardice. 

Now it would be easier to say, let’s just go along and wait until more people “get it”. But the fact of the matter is that every day we postpone action, more people and untold living species are being harmed and in increasing numbers are now dying. Every day that’s lost is billions more tons of GHG ejected into our atmosphere, that become much like a ticking bomb that unerringly if still slowly heats this planet and alters our climate.

As a civilization, now also largely responsible for the well-being of this planet and all its natural inhabitants, we no longer have time for further delay or even for convenient incremental measures. It’s time to hit the breaks today on our fossil fuel rampage, regardless of the short-term pain. Or, according to the vast majority of our leading scientists today, it’s over the cliff we go, with the consequences of inaction being truly grave.

One way to look at this is that it's just a lack of consensus. The jury is still out for some, on the existence of climate change as a whole, and more specifically on whether climate change is caused by human action. Conventional wisdom in this case says, give it time; wait until there’s a greater consensus for action. Putting aside the fact that just like in our speeding car scenario, crowd wisdom doesn’t always guarantee an accurate perspective, another niggling problem with this approach is that it’s not well supported by history, real or allegorical.

Every wonder what Noah’s neighbors thought and said of his strange behavior when he started  building the arK? Put yourself in his shoes and that’s kind of what this situation feels like. 

Then there’s Columbus. Whether or not people really believed the world was flat when he set sail, clearly there were no guarantees he would find anything worth seeking on his voyage of discovery. Yet sail off he did, definitely without full scientific proof or public consensus behind the wisdom of his course of action.

What would have happened if John F Kennedy had taken an opinion poll of the general public and of all the leading scientists of the day to determine how many actually believed we could reach the moon before he decided to launch the lunar space program?

Or Mahatma Gandhi, suffrage leaders, civil rights leaders; if each of these life saving initiatives waited for full consensus of leading experts or public opinion before taking bold action, it’s hard to imagine where our civilization would be today.

Foresight, courage, a clear inner call to right action and just plain old fashioned leadership, over and over have led us as a world family to rise and meet the challenges of our time.

Clearly, the call of climate change, the wrenching toll it’s already taking and the colossal risks to civilization from further bargaining and delay are our Ark, our Lunar Program, our Human Rights Movement, and those of us who see this fact clearly must not fail to act regardless of the personal consequences. We must act today, we must act boldly, we must do whatever’s needed to wake up our sleeping friends and stop the fossil fuel intoxicated politicians and corporate leaders from driving  us over a cliff. Failure to act is a denial of the gift of our individual consciousness and does a dangerous disservice to all.   

It’s oblivious that much of the real power on this level comes down to who has the money and who controls the purse strings – how and where the money is spent. Well, last time I checked, 100% of the money is actually generated by John Q Citizens like you and me. And this is where I start feeling a bit rebellious. No, I’m not ready to quit paying federal taxes—not yet. But instead of turning over all of our resources to Washington and greedy corporations, we the people—and specifically the people who understand and care about accelerating climate change—need to take back control of our money! 

Rather than send all of our dollars to pay for taxes that are being misspent on disastrous fossil fuel subsides and the like, and then spend the rest of our precious dough to line the pockets of greedy corporations bent on protecting fossil fuel income or ramping up dangerous consumerism – we need to start building our own large and powerful fund to pay for real climate change solutions now.  A fund that is people driven and really really big. We’re talking billions. 

Let’s not buy into the belief that the money isn’t available today to put into climate change solutions. Forgetting for a moment how much our government is spending, we the people are also spending huge sums of our own money every single day. It’s not lack of money. It’s a lack of leadership to actively cultivate the public awareness, foresight and commitment that’s needed to help us put a higher priority on spending our money wisely – for the protection and well-being of our families, homes and communities, and yes, for the future of our planet for generations to come.

Think for a moment about the insurance industry. Recent calculations estimate that the world spends upwards of 3.5 TRILLION DOLLARS every single year on insurance. For what? Not for tangible goods and services; not for food or recreation; not for buildings and cars; but exclusively for the CONCEPT of our future security. This astounding figure clearly says that those of us who are committed to addressing climate change must start doing a much better job of conveying the CONCEPT of how investing in climate change solutions is the best insurance we can hope to buy right now. Taking control of the situation by individually choosing to channel a greater portion of our own dollars into building a huge climate change fund is the only short-term way we have available to protect our long-term future—not to mention deal with the climate change impacts already pounding our global family today.

We can’t afford to wait for Washington to “get it” and finally act with foresight. And it’s not like we need to spend a ton of money individually—unless of course we have a ton to spend. I am reminded of how many millions the Obama campaign raised with all those emails we all received asking us to donate five to fifty dollars to get President Obama into office. Well, no offense President Obama, but after observing Washington’s recent mockery of the Cancun negotiations and your failure to actually participate there, I’m feeling a whole lot more inclined to give my next 5 bucks to someone I can actually trust to do something about climate change.

When hearts and minds are a little less steamed there’s probably some solid thinking and planning to be done by wiser people than I on how best to organize and build this type of people’s fund. But for now, I’ll just go on record saying I’d love to see a general fund be generated by people like Bill Mckibben and a few others with his understanding and vision—people who I know “get it” and who will use my 5 dollars well.

If insurance agents can raise 3.5 trillion this year, why can’t we the people raise a billion or two for something like a Carbon Neutral Climate Action Now Fund? I’m ready Bill; just  let me know where to send my 5 dollars to start doing some real good.   

By every measure in national politics the johnny-come-lately Tea Party just demonstrated some serious clout in the midterm election. So why did the largest electoral group in the world get sent to the woodshed – to the point where they’ll be playing all out defense for years to come?

The members of this movement regularly voice frustration with congress and the international community for the failure to address climate change. Understandable. But in a movement where the famous Gandhi quote, “be the change you hope to see in others,” is a familiar rallying cry, shouldn’t they lead this effort by first unifying their ranks into a powerful mandate with a cohesive plan to advance a specific agenda?

Imagine the stir this “blessed unrest” would unleash if they managed to pull this off. 

By all accounts Vermont is fertile ground to advance this effort: a new governor who supports this movement’s goals; a congressional delegation known for leading on environmental and social justice issues; a sympathetic state legislature—all supported by a demographic and economic sector ridiculously rich in all things green. If this isn’t a hotbed of social and environmental change, then what is? 

With these gifts Vermont should be able to unify its many progressive organizations and initiatives into a strong coalition capable of advancing bold initiatives for human rights, health care, clean energy, growing the green economy and leading climate change solutions.

Vermont’s culture possesses another unique dimension that is vital to achieving true and lasting social change. As we’re seeing today with the newly energized drive to repeal the health care bill, winning elections or even major legislative victories is not enough to effect true social change. A house divided—whether at the popular or congressional level—on the elements of any plan, ultimately lacks the will to implement real solutions.

In its unique town meeting process Vermont reveals deep roots in a more participative democracy born in the small towns and tight communities of its green mountains. The ownership Vermonters feel around their government can now be tapped to foster a next generation democracy capable of driving a level of social change other municipalities can only dream of.

This is the time for Vermonters to form a robust grassroots coalition that, working in concert with political leaders, drives an ambitious, innovative and fully participatory statewide planning process—tasked with generating a bold plan to propel Vermont to the forefront of the global sustainability movement. A plan that will have aggressive targets to keep pace with accelerating climate change, but is also detailed enough to be held accountable; a plan that builds a more durable, greener economy, but also empowers healthy communities; a plan that the people understand because they have actively designed it; a plan that can be rapidly approved and successfully implemented.

It’s no secret that as a nation we have long possessed adequate knowledge about climate change and other major social and environmental challenges. The fact that we have not sufficiently acted on this knowledge to date does not point to poor science or limited understanding. It speaks directly to the utter failure of our democratic processes.

Accepting this, it stands to reason that any real progress on these and the other vital issues of our day requires also improving the process by which we reach conclusions as a people and make decisions as a government. The problems and the process must both be addressed simultaneously.

The world today needs both a more robust dimension of democracy and bolder action plans to meet accelerating global challenges. Vermont is uniquely equipped and eminently poised to lead in both arenas. 

Yes, many are still wailing and moaning and desperately holding onto the ways of the past, and at times the din of collective denial is all but deafening. Yet as distracting as this cacophony may be, it is still only the death throe of a dying age now racing helter-skelter towards extinction.

This isn’t to say that even in the best-case scenario the fundamental models this era was built on, or the now defunct structures and practices it spawned will disappear overnight. Or, that our global community can hope to escape altogether the dire consequences of our past errant ways. Sadly we cannot and we won’t

Still, we would be wise not to allow ourselves to be too distracted by the machinations of this climactic angst, for we stand now at the proverbial fork in the road on civilization’s evolutionary journey. On the one hand we may choose to advance into what may be the most rapid, widespread, and transformative era civilization has ever witnessed. On the other hand, simply by failing to move boldly forward our civilization may land on the dust heap of ages: refuse for a distant civilization to build on. The clock is ticking loudly now and the eyes of our children and of future generations are locked upon us. 

If we listen to science today, in as short a time as the next decade we face a veritable tipping point scenario on a host of key metrics measuring the planet’s ability to sustain global civilization. Already the needle is pushing the redline pointing to unsustainable fuel supplies; dwindling forests and shrinking water supplies; soil erosion, toxic and unsustainable food systems; spiraling global poverty and population growth. Then the mother of all indicators, rising carbon emissions, though still debated in some quarters, is already unleashing catastrophic climate impacts including rapidly melting glaciers and encroaching seas and deserts. Unchecked, the composite of these trends will form the perfect storm capable of spawning whole nations of refugees and dangerously extending the already pressing list of failed nation-states. 

Clearly, this picture is daunting if not mind numbing in scope and complexity and leaves even true believers gasping for a more hopeful perspective. And while the world argues endlessly about comparative minutia, mercilessly holding out for perfect and painless solutions, the disastrous impacts we’re already witnessing today continue escalating at an ever more alarming rate.

A sage philosopher once said that we humans often don’t progress in life simply because we fail to sufficiently visualize the great potential of the future. Similarly, humanity today risks becoming so dangerously mired in preserving the outmoded models of the past, that we fail to recognize the urgency of the moment or sufficiently develop the innovations that will not only move us beyond our present challenges, but at the same time usher in an enlightened and bountiful future.

Consider how just one or two old, and by comparison, ponderously slow industrial technologies reshaped the previous century. From the Wright brother’s first flight in 1903 through commercial aviation, lunar landings, galactic exploration and even space tourism; from early typewriters and adding machines to super computers and the still emerging miracle of the internet and digitized global communications. Even the most enlightened person living at the turn of the 20^th century could have never imagined the lives we take for granted today.

Then think of the plethora of hyper speed next generation technologies and the revolutionary advancements they’re unleashing today in the fields of science, medicine, psychology, architecture, energy, agriculture, education and more. Consider how any one of these trends can revolutionize life by this century’s end. Given sufficient time to mature, the combination of these transformative developments will almost certainly alter life beyond anything even our greatest minds living today could ever imagine.

So here we stand, in the spotlight of the ages, at the front end of what may very well be forever seen as the decade that represented the most critical juncture in the history of modern civilization. As a global community will we rise to the challenge and play our role with the hearts of heroes and the vision of angels? Or—simply by holding on too tightly to the ways of the past—will we squander the hope of ages for unimaginable progress?

Evolution is a relentless master, with humankind representing the latest product in its astonishingly successful march through the ages. This engine of progress culminates today in the warm hearts, bright spirits and lighting quick minds of our younger generations, who in ever growing numbers are dedicating their lives to an epic campaign focused on preserving the planet for subsequent generations—including their own.

In light of their impassioned struggle it seems only fair to ask what right the elder generations who hold the reins of power today have to stand idly by ignoring or denying the escalating threats of present-day Business As Usual? Are the creature comforts of the elder generations’ golden years so precious that they can excuse callously and heartlessly risking the future of our noble and blameless youth, and of untold generations to come? 

If this is the red-letter decade and passive inaction in any form is the enemy of the future to be vanquished at any cost, what is a commonsense response? How should we act today if we’re to be less an obstacle to progress and more a solution to the challenges at hand? Anyone in their 40’s or 50’s or beyond knows one thing by now for sure – 10 years passes in the blink of an eye. Which means above all else, action, forward movement and momentum must become the coin of the realm and remain so throughout the decade ahead.

Furthermore, the time for half measures is clearly past. Changing the day-to-day habits of over six billion people to dramatically alter the practices of a global civilization in just 10 short years can only succeed by boldly advancing truly radical measures. If ever there was one, this is the time for heroic activists to rise and join the global campaign courageously marching towards a brighter global future. 

  Touchstones For Bold Action:

1. Learn as much as you can about what’s really happening to our planet today. Knowledge holds precious power over ignorance, denial and avoidance.
2. Think big, bold radical measures! We no longer have the luxury to even consider incremental steps.
3. Lead by your example. Say yes first and then figure out how to make change happen.
4. Don’t worry about the financial costs of change today; the price of inaction will be far greater tomorrow.
5. Don’t worry about the naysayers–plenty of people do see the truth today. Join with them to form this powerful movement for positive change.
6. Start now: volunteer, join, act, connect. Do what you can today and improve as you go forward. Positive action and forward momentum are the essential keys to success.
7. Above all else make room for the youngest voices at the table today. Profoundly hear their thoughts and ideas. This is their time, their age we’re building, and their future we’re ardently preserving.   

It must change to avoid catastrophic climate change, utter depletion of our natural resources, complete poisoning of our natural environment, and wholesale elimination of an untenable number of native species—very possibly including our own.

For those of us who don’t argue this statement, be it many or ever so few, the real question then becomes - how? How do we change our global way of life quickly enough and substantially enough to prevent that future from becoming our own? More pointedly, how does a free society still teeming with aggressively hyper-consuming naysayers (and let’s face it, most of us are still consuming way more than our fair share) ever change quickly and deeply enough to make a substantial and meaningful difference to this grim future scenario? 

My answer to this question begins with all of us, courageously, starting to tell the truth. Tell the truth about the situation we’re in, and the real risks and dire global problems we face. Tell the truth to ourselves, to each other, to our kids, our colleagues, and most importantly tell the truth and begin demanding to hear the truth from our world leaders.

Today few of us are even comfortable speaking publicly about the disturbing situations we face as a global community. Maybe it’s just not considered polite conversation yet to enter a discussion about the slumping economy by sharing that in your opinion the slumping economy is not even remotely close to the real issue. The real issue is that our current lifestyle and the fundamental economic model of hyper-consumption that it’s based on must radically dhange.

We’ve all heard the truth that no meaningful solution is ever developed without first facing and then accurately defining the real problem. Accordingly, until we begin to move past our collective denial and start having these honest dialogues, we’re still postponing the real work of collectively engineering the hoped for soft landing to a sustainable global lifestyle for our world family. Can we afford to put this conversation off any longer? Will breaking through our mass denial and accepting that human behavior—yours and mine—must radically change, be avoided until we hear the deafening drumbeat of ever-escalating global disasters? Let’s hope not.

Beyond just starting these honest discussions, the very real question still remains of how we fundamentally change billions of human minds and then radically alter basic every day behavior on a global scale? Is activism an effective means? Is the painstakingly slow and ever-dysfunctional political process an effective means of social change at this colossal level? Whatever solution we choose, it needs to begin soon and it must quickly extend to bold honest, realistic and practical dialogue originating from our national and international leaders. Yes, our world leaders, who are intelligent and well informed enough to realize exactly what’s happening here, must somehow find the gumption and compassion needed to begin telling us all the truth – and then assist all of society to accept and make the profound changes that are needed. 

So, it seems to me that if we’re going to “make room” for real conversations with our leaders, again the most important conversations must start with you and me, the people on the street. Maybe if we all begin to hear the truth about our global situation in coffee shops and business meetings, blogs and talk shows, and around the dinner table, then we can get beyond the shock factor these discussions seem to engender now and start dealing constructively with the new reality.

Though there may be reasons aplenty for arguing the underlying causes of the extremely challenging conditions we face today, there’s no denying that the combination of social, economic, environmental and political realities that demand our attention today are virtually unprecedented in history and truly daunting in their potential to radically alter our present way of life.

As I view the global field today I see four macro-level powerhouse trends at play that, working together, form the proverbial perfect storm, making present-day global challenges truly unprecedented in all of recorded history.  

1) A Planet Approaching the Limits of Growth

Throughout known history on planet earth there have always been virtually unlimited natural resources available to meet both present needs and fuel the demands of future growth - growth of population, growth of economic wealth, growth of food resources and growth of production. Plus, existing resources have, up to now, been buoyed by the underlying resilience of our planet, with its seemingly endless capacity to renew these resources on a continuous basis.

Without attempting a detailed analysis, by any commonsense measure of current reality the planet’s ability to fuel unlimited growth has reached an end. Now, for the first time in humankind’s recorded history, increasingly we must grapple with the limits of growth as measured by progressively limited resources and the sometimes-severe repercussions of attempting to operate beyond their natural range.

2) The Increasing Need to Respond to Unprecedented Global Events 

A related but to some degree tangential circumstance is that beyond just running out of key resources, now on a daily basis we must also allocate our precious existing resources to counteract unforeseen but substantial natural and social calamities causing major damage, heart wrenching suffering, and total disruption to our daily lives – often wrecking further serious harm to the natural environment in the process.

These major disasters and emergencies, ranging from radical climate change events, large scale environmental disasters, menacing social and health disorders, or large scale civic disruptions, seem to endlessly spawn from the growing dysfunction of major planetary systems which are now clearly operating beyond the limits of known control. 

3) Now Experiencing Accelerating and Increasingly Destabilizing Change

Up until relatively recent times, a person could reasonably expect to live in the same community and work in the same career (if not even the same company) and know a relatively consistent quality of life throughout the natural span of a lifetime. Granted events would occur periodically to interrupt the normal pattern of life, but these events were the exceptions, and life could sooner or later be expected to return to a predictable norm. 

At some point in recent history the experience of major change shifted from the exception to the norm, and then continued to escalate and accelerate from there. Fast forward to our present day rate of change where, unless you’re aggressively working to predict the next wave of global change, chances are it’s already crested and you’re now hoplelessly far behind the times!

4) World Governments Clearly Incapable Of Meeting The Demands Of Our Day   

By any reasonable analyses, the current forms of national and international government are clearly unable to keep pace with the rising demands of our times. When rapidly changing global events and conditions demand our best thinking and a rapid cohesive response, every known system of state government is proving painfully slow and appallingly short of even a basic standard of success. Unfortunately the consequences of these failures are progressive, and the results may eventually become nothing short of cataclysmic.

Given the above trends the news of the day grows progressively more shocking and extreme and seems to ingreasingly engender a collective sense of a global system brinking total failure – a looming large scale breakdown which may be capable of threatening life as we know it.

And into this truly perilous landscape, capable of testing even the greatest minds of our day, the unpretentious everyday leaders of small and often humble companies valiantly venture forth daily to attempt to navigate the (now mine-studded) road to prosperity and success. Or, at the very least, to somehow bolt their company’s doors open long enough just to begin solving the deeper issues increasingly challenging their economic survival. 

All of which is to explain why, at least in this man’s mind, those who are brave enough to willingly take on the role of running a small company in the present day global arena are nothing short of heroes, well deserving of hearty recognition and generous praise.

Why Exit Strategy Planning Is Now More Important Than Ever Before

Perhaps more than in any previous period, significant fundamental shifts to social and economic foundations will substantially alter the value and market of small to midsize businesses during the next 10 years.

The Forces of Change 

1.  The changes brought about by the massive Baby Boomer Business Owner Demographic.

• What will the impact be to business values and marketability when over 50% of today's small business owners who plan on retiring in the next 10 – 15 years start to make their move?
• Are there enough buyers or even willing and qualified operators to assimilate the number of businesses impacted?
• This magnitude of ownership change has never occurred in recent history outside of a major cataclysmic period of social and economic upheaval.

2.  The Implications of the Internet

• The impact on every aspect of business operation from the Internet is not leveling off. On the contrary, these changes are just beginning and the rate of change will only accelerate as the internet continues to fundamentally alter the way business is done.

3.  The growing implications of Climate Change and the Sustainability Movement

• What is a sustainable business or economy, really? With climate and social change we don’t yet have a clear answer to this question. 
• Will brick and mortar businesses remain desirable over the next 10 years?
• Will conventional sales and distribution channels and the businesses that populate them be as important in the future, as the net increasingly centralizes the way we access and buy our goods and services?
• Is extensive diversity and duplication of manufacturing and distribution capacity sustainable in an altered economy? 
• In a slower growing or more sustainable economy, will consumerism remain the driving force of business and economic growth?
• In a shifting global economy, will the United States remain the driving force that shapes the way the world does business?

4.  Generational Change

• As we know 20 – 40 year old players just entering or finding their niche in the business arena today simply do not see the world the same way older more established players do.
• What has value? How to spend time and invest resources? What's the goal of a professional career?  The answer to these questions are vastly different for those just entering business today, and this difference will have a growing impact on the previous generations of business owners who will start to divest their ownership positions in years to come.
• At the very least, a generation raised on the net, with digital communications and entertainment, and instant access to global information, products and services will be hard pressed to put the same value on acquiring or sustaining traditionally styled companies.

 5.  Financial Underpinnings of Transitioning Business Ownership

• The existence of significant national debt will unavoidably decrease credit availability, raise interest rates and increase the tax costs associated with a change in business ownership. 
• These changes will limit the accessibility to business ownership and reduce the number of business buyers in the marketplace.

  Broadly speaking, what will be the likely impact from these forces of change?

• Retiring baby boomers will increasingly flood the marketplace of businesses for sale, and the market for major business assets.

• Demand for traditional Brick and Mortar business will steadily decrease.

• Rising transaction costs will reduce the number of financially qualified buyers in the marketplace.

• Predictability –what’s a valuable business today and which business will hold it’s value in the future – will be harder for anyone to establish in the years to come.

• Security, in terms of the predictable long-term investment value of a business, will be harder to come by or count on.  

As an owner of an existing small business, what is your best response to these changes?

Even the smallest business owners must learn to see their companies from the perspective of a business investor.

See every product and every business unit and the business as a whole as an end product in itself - with distinct market value.   

Be extremely strategic in business planning and growth.  Continuously assess how your plans and projects impact the value and marketability of the business and its basic assets–especially when considering any major business expansion or development project.

Move aggressively towards flexibility and growing your company’s ability to change. Get good at change and be ready to respond to any changes in the marketplace. It’s not will major change affect your business, it’s when, how big, and how well will your company respond and capitalize on the changes that you are already experiencing, and those that are still to come. 

Be actively cultivating the next generation of business owners today. Think of your employees, your customers, your investors, even your competitors as potential buyers, and actively cultivate relationships that can quickly shift towards succession, mergers, sales or acquisitions. 

As you get closer to your envisioned ownership horizon, be ready to alter your business and ownership relationships and models to seize the opportunities that will arise to spin off part or all of a business.